Volume of the most common sleeper tractors auctioned this month was up moderately from August. Of the major nationwide auctions we track, only one was postponed due to Hurricane Harvey or Irma. Pricing was relatively strong, with model-year 2011-2013 trucks gaining 2.6% of their value on average month-over-month.
September auction performance of our benchmark model was as follows:
MY2013: $27,800 average; $802 (2.8%) lower than August
MY2012: $26,500 average; $1,361 (5.4%) higher than August
MY2011: $24,000 average; $1,390 (6.1%) higher than August
In the first 9 months of the year, trucks of model year 2011 averaged 1.2% depreciation per month, trucks of model year 2012 depreciated 0.4% per month, and trucks of model year 2013 depreciated 0.9% per month.
Based on feedback from dealers and fleets, it looks like Class 8 losses will end up on the lower end of estimates. Most fleets kept the majority of their trucks away from the hurricane-prone areas in the period leading up to the storms, and were able to remove most of the trucks already in those areas prior to the weather events. Dealer inventory may represent the biggest area of loss, but of course there is more than enough supply of sleeper tractors to meet any replacement demand. As for the medium duty sector, losses will likely be more notable, and we will follow up when more data is collected. Stay tuned.