Commercial Truck Blog

Final 2016 Medium Duty Figures

01/02/2017 07:00 PM

We provided a year-end wrap-up of medium duty segments in the January edition of Guidelines, but we can now provide more precise figures with December data.

Starting with Class 3-4 cabovers, our benchmark group of 4-7 year-old trucks averaged $14,195 in December, for a $140 (or 1.0%) increase over November. Year-over-year, December 2016 was $2,539 (or 15.2%) higher than December 2015. The 2016 12-month average, at $15,216, was $440 (or 2.8%) lower than 2015.

Monthly depreciation for this group averaged 1.8%. This figure is in line with historical norms, and 0.2% greater than 2015. A substantially higher volume of trucks sold in 2016 combined with similar year-over-year pricing points to a relatively healthy market. Economic conditions support strength in the markets these trucks serve. See graph below for detail.

Looking at the conventional market in December, the slump in Class 6 continued, with that group outvalued by Class 4 for the entire fourth quarter. In December, average pricing for Class 4’s ticked up slightly, while Class 6’s declined. Volume was off moderately for both cohorts.

Specifically, Class 4’s averaged $18,708 in December. This figure is $331 (or 1.8%) higher than November, and $1,226 (or 1.8%) higher than December 2015. Class 6’s averaged $15,788 in December. This figure is $413 (or 2.5%) lower than November, and $3,279 (or 17.2%) lower than December 2015.

Class 4 pricing was remarkably steady in 2016, losing less than 3% over the 12-month period. This performance compares favorably to 2015’s 1% per month depreciation. The volume of trucks reported sold was notably greater in 2016. As with cabovers, stable pricing combined with higher volume suggests a healthy market. The wide variety of user segments served by lighter conventionals are performing fairly well.

Looking at our Class 6 group, depreciation was higher than historic norms, losing about 2.6% per month in 2016. This figure is meaningfully higher than the 1.7% monthly depreciation in 2015. Year-over-year pricing was $1,519 (or 7.1%) behind 2015.

In December, our benchmark group of Class 6 conventionals averaged $15,788. This figure is $413 (or 2.5%) lower than November, and $3,279 (or 17.2%) lower than December 2015.

Volume of Class 6’s sold in 2016 was substantially higher than 2015, which partially explains the greater depreciation. Still, 2.6% monthly depreciation is not impressive. The Class 6 market remains lukewarm. Buyers are currently more interested in lighter-GVW trucks. See graph below for detail.