A massive increase in the number of 4-7 year-old trucks sold in September means the floodgates opened, at least for one month, as the industry continues to grapple with the combined effects of elevated trade-ins, an uptick in fleet bankruptcies and liquidations, and a moderating economy. Surprisingly, selling price of trucks in this age range did not change as much as one would expect given the huge increase in trucks sold. See below for detail.
Model year 2015: $25,935 average; $565 (2.1%) lower than August
Model year 2014: $21,363 average; $88 (0.4%) lower than August
Model year 2013: $17,053 average; $1,447 (7.8%) lower than August
Model year 2012: $13,085 average; $1,740 (11.7%) lower than August
Model year 2011: $11,464 average; $611 (5.1%) lower than August
In the first 9 months of 2019, 4-6 year-old examples of our benchmark model brought 8.2% less money than in the same period of 2018. Monthly depreciation for 4-6 year-old trucks has increased to 3.9%. This figure is in line with a market defined by excess supply. We all knew that volume would continue to increase throughout 2019, but the massive change over one month was surprising. It is possible September’s volume was a one-month surge, but pressure on volume is entirely upward.
Stay tuned next week for results from the retail channel.