As the COVID-19 situation continues to develop, J.D. Power Valuation Services is committed to supporting our industry through this unprecedented time. What follows are our insights through the week ending May 31.
Volume was down considerably in May, which made analysis difficult and resulted in averages that are not necessarily representative of market conditions. A more complete analysis suggests depreciation has relaxed, and the market appears to be firming.
Since April was the first month in which sales occurred entirely within the economic shutdown, we were very curious to see how pricing and volume would turn out. We were somewhat encouraged by pricing data...
Our analysis of how direct-to-dealer wholesale prices have performed since the start of the virus situation.
Compared to wholesale auction prices over the same period, reveals that direct to dealer / upstream wholesale prices have held up far better than prices at physical wholesale auctions. For the week ending April 26, direct-to-dealer wholesale prices were down around 6% versus the beginning of March, a relatively small decrease when compared to the 14% decline recorded for wholesale auction prices over the same period.
May 1 marks the first milestone in the very gradual reopening of the American economy. Many states have slightly dialed back the most stringent restrictions on business and public activity, cracking open the door for increased commerce. What does this mean for the used truck market?
In normal times, pricing trends in the retail market usually lag the auction market by roughly 3-5 months. In our current environment, trucks in both channels are losing value fairly rapidly, although retail pricing might not be falling quite as sharply as auction pricing.
The volume of 4-7 year-old trucks sold at auction was healthier than expected in March, given the fact that most auctions moved to online-only. Pricing was flat to slightly lower than February, which outperformed our expectations.